Nintendo will likely be the “primary partner for third-party game publishers” on console in five years, an analyst firm has forecast, by which time Switch 2 will have hit 100m units sold.
A fresh report on the coming year in video games – and beyond – from veteran firm DFC Intelligence states that Nintendo is likely to beat its own forecast for Switch 2 sales this year, albeit slightly.
Nintendo has said it expects to shift 15m Switch 2 consoles before 31st March 2026, though DFC forecasts Nintendo will in reality likely sell 16m – enough to say it has beat expectations. With supply chain improvements, sales could be even higher still – as many as 20m, DFC believes.
“Reflecting its historically conservative approach to new product forecasting, Nintendo is estimating sales of 15m Switch 2 units through the end of its fiscal year in March 2026,” DFC wrote in its report, shared with Eurogamer.
“When the original Switch launched in March 2017, Nintendo initially projected 10m units for the fiscal year but ultimately sold 15m units in that period. Based on that track record, the fact that Nintendo is forecasting a 15m unit number gives us confidence that they will be able to ramp up supply and navigate tariff challenges.”
With the delay of GTA 6 to 2026, the launch of Switch 2 will be this year’s biggest driver of video game spending – particularly so in Japan, DFC expects, where Nintendo has a competitively-priced local model for that market.
Looking to the future, DFC says Switch 2 will hit 100m sales by 2029 and be the leading console system at that time.
Both Sony and Microsoft have expressed interest in launching their own handheld devices, and both companies are also widely expected to be prepping their own next home consoles to arrive from 2027 onwards. But Nintendo launching Switch 2 now means it will have several years of headstart on PS6 and the next Xbox.
“DFC forecasts that by the end of 2029 the Switch 2 will have sold over 100m units making it the leading console system by a wide margin,” the firm wrote. “The next few years could see Nintendo for the first time becoming the primary partner for third-party game publishers.”
For context, Switch is currently on 152m sales after eight years. PlayStation 5 is on 74.9m after four and a half years. Xbox Series X/S is believed to be at around 30m units after the same time period, though Microsoft does not release official hardware figures.
Only seven console platforms have passed 100m over the years, with more than half from Nintendo: Game Boy/Color, Nintendo DS, Wii, Switch, PS1, PS2 and PS4.
PS2 remains the best-selling console of all time at around 160m units sold – though Switch 1 is giving it a run for its money, and now sits less than 8m consoles away.
